Fleta be of good cheer>
Having failed rather spectacularly to
correctly predict Mitt Romney’s running mate—I said it definitely would not be Paul Ryan less than 24 hours before he was
I should probably avoid political predictions for a while. But as all those who
make their livings in the prediction business know, the secret to success is to
make so many of them that a few are bound to be right.
That said, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Barack Obama will
win the election easily, at least in the all-important Electoral College. I have
thought so for some time, but wanted to wait and see if the party conventions
changed the political dynamics. They have; they have made me more certain of
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Pollster Nate Silver has done an excellent job of assembling all of the known
political data on where the presidential race stood as of Wednesday. His analysis leads him to project that Obama
will beat Romney 51.2 percent to 47.6 percent in the popular vote, and 311 to
227 in the Electoral College where only 270 votes are needed to win. Overall,
Silver gives Obama a 76 percent chance of winning the election.
Those who don’t follow the data intensively can be forgiven for not knowing
what good shape Obama is in, because it is rarely reported in the mainstream
media. There is a simple reason for this: it has a huge vested interest in
maintaining the idea that the election is so close it cannot be called and will
come down to the last vote cast on Election Day.